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Afghan End-Game Must Be Made-In-Pakistan
Pakistan must say ‘No’ to an operation in North Waziristan. Islamabad must resist American pressure for a new war in North Waziristan. Simply put, it is not in the Pakistani national interest. A better option is to push for peace with all Afghan resistance groups, including Afghan Taliban.
NAJAM MAHMUD | Tuesday | 18 January 2011 | Columnist
WWW.PAKNATIONALISTS.COM
KARACHI, Pakistan—Haqqani and Hekmatyar groups are present in North Waziristan but they have never been hostile to Pakistan in anyway. Another militant group, headed by Hafiz Gul Bahadur, is also operating in North Waziristan which has signed a peace deal with the Pakistan Army. This is where the divergence with the United States comes in, since they view these groups as a roadblock to their victory in Afghanistan.
Therefore to weaken these groups the US wants Pakistan Army to launch an operation against them in North Waziristan. However, we must resist this pressure as it is not in our national interest to do so. We must know that while fighting America’s war, we must keep in mind our own strategic interests in this region. The US will sooner or later have to leave but we are here to stay and Afghanistan being a neighboring country will always have significant implications for our own security and well being.
DESPERATION
The United States is desperate for a face-saving exit in Afghanistan and it has been mounting pressure on the Pakistani establishment for a North Waziristan operation. In every strategic dialogue, this seems to be the first and foremost demand by the Americans. The other tactic the US administration has resorted to is the increased drone attacks in North Waziristan and not other Pakistani tribal agencies.
The NATO cross-border violation in October was also just another repulsive and blatantly desperate attempt to put undue pressure on Pakistan. The fact that Pakistan Army stopped the NATO supply line for ten days brought home a humbling lesson not only to NATO but to the Americans and eventually they had to apologize for this. aggression.
A perpetual closure of this route will bring a humiliating defeat and surrender of NATO and US forces in Afghanistan, a fact which is now well understood by all parties concerned. Pakistan must use leverage this strategic imperative and ensure that all her long term interests are protected in the region.
Pakistan has been and must continue to build a strong national will at all levels in order to stand up to this pressure. Pakistan must also make the US and NATO realize that the best option for everyone is to work on negotiations with Taliban in North Waziristan, as they are not attacking us and therefore we can play our role for a stable Afghanistan in the post-US scenario.
Pakistan’s military officials have continued to maintain that any operation in North Waziristan would be undertaken only if it is in our interest.
Pakistan is looking not just at the short term but also beyond. In that scenario, most analysts agree that the Afghan Taliban will in some shape and form be part of any political solution that is eventually negotiated for Afghanistan. The US and NATO have to swallow a bitter pill and accept the fact that the Afghan Taliban remain a formidable force and hence without talking to them there can be no peace and stability in Afghanistan nor any face-saving exit for the US and NATO forces.
Pakistan has to follow a clear and bold policy on Afghanistan as only a stable Afghanistan will ensure that the internal security problems of Pakistan also get resolved.
General Kayani has already reiterated that Pakistan’s strategic depth lies in Afghanistan. However that does not mean that Pakistan wants to control Kabul, we simply have a clear and strong desire to see stability. Of course we want friendly and close ties and considering the sacrifices made by the people of Pakistan, expecting this is not only understandable but also critical.
The US has begun to realize that it’s only with Pakistan’s help that any lasting peace can return to Afghanistan.
The fact of the matter is that we have always maintained the need for starting a meaningful dialogue with the Afghan Taliban, something which the USA in the past was totally opposed to but now due to suffering heavily, they too have realized the wisdom of this doctrine.
The move towards peace can gain momentum if the Americans accept that there will never see any military victory in Afghanistan and just as the Soviets lost the war, they too have to accept defeat no matter how they sugarcoat it.
END GAME
There is now a general acceptance in the western governments that negotiating with the Taliban is the only way to bring this failed war to an end. The US must review its policy fully and rather than follow a confused and contradictory approach, come out with a bold peace plan for Afghanistan that is authored by the Pakistani Defense establishment.
The recent visit of US Vice President Joe Biden to Pakistan was to make another attempt at pressurizing Pakistan to conduct a military operation in North Waziristan. The Army high command has said “NO” and that’s a good sign. There will be more pressure down the road, but there simply cannot be a compromise on this and one hopes that the policy stand on this issue will not soften as that would have serious and detrimental implications on our long term security.
Najam Mahmud is a geopolitical analyst and commentator from Pakistan, specializing in politics and international relations. Reach him at
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Najam Mahmmud @ “I wonder how can we play this double game ? Mr Najam wants Pakistan not listen to the west’s pleas to do some thing about north wazirastan . while admitting the presence of Haqanis, Bhadurs, Gulbadis, friendly Taliban friendly to Alqaida short of accepting to have links with Aqaida militants..” May ask what these people are doing in Nort Wazeerstan, can we say that they peaceful people fighting against non—- and of course not using the Pakistani soil for any kind of military activity across the border ? Even if we say that they fighting a just war against foreign enemy? who has invaded a neighboring Muslim country ? It is our religious moral and political duty to defend the integrity of Muslim brother country ? And that Pushtu n, Taliban are the legitimate rulers and gov’t of people of Afghanistan ?
If the answer is yes then where we are standing as a nation -country ? Is it not true that Pakistan is the American-western ally in war on terrorism since 1979 and then 2001 ?. I f the answer is again true then we are very strange nation! sir we are committed ally and an atomic country submitted its so called sovereignty on a single telephonic call !
My friends we have landed our selves in a big ‘ditch’ we can’t live in and out both….
An other important question what are our objectives in Afghanistan…. ? Do we still believe in the yester year’s dream of strategic depth….and then use the power against India Liberate Kashmir….and have great Muslim country – super power…. ?
We are American ally and wish her to be defeated in Afghanistan ? Assuming
This happens where will we find our selves, will it be our victory ? who’s victory it will be by the way, ? Like Russia’s loss in Afghanistan was America’s gain ? in this case who will gain India China, Iran Russia or Pakistan…? America will vanish from the earth and Islamic Khilafit Of Mullah Ommer, Osama bin laden will be established…? If not then what is all this about ? we want to stop Nato supply to Afghanistan why can’t we stop smuggling in Afghan trade… ? Pakistan has allowed and agreed to give route ….
We need 1 prepare, help start negotiation between Afghan groups. militants and USA- west… just as facilitator.. try to build new relationship with all Afghan groups…. get the Dwinder line recognized immediately… with present Afghan Gov’t .. forget to have proxy in Afghanistan have friendly neighbor help rebuild Afghanistan…forget your foolish dreams of conquering central Asia !
Build your own Economy, solve your socio- political problems have 10-20 years peace to develop you human industrial, techno logic base to be a player on Global level….with respect and honor Pakistan nation deserves….American lost in Vietnam today there is an american flag on every house-shop.. think today how you want to see your nation 50 years down the line ???pleas forgive if some thing you did’t like but these are my honest views observation!.
@Irfan – you are right that there are other routes that NATO forces can use but they are more expensive than this one and using them will significantly increase cost for US whose economy is already on its knees
The writer is right in one sense: that the United States will leave sooner or later, and Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban will still be around. And what is the end game for Pakistan/Taliban? Pakistan wants a friendly regime in Afghanistan that they can not only trust but control, and who better than the Taliban.
It’s also true that Pakistan can shut down the supply route to NATO. This we have also witnessed as well. The writer is wrong to assume that closing this route would starve NATO. This is false. There are other supply routes other than the ones through Pakistan. The only thing Pakistan will earn is ire from the Americans.
The United States want a stable Afghanistan as well. Yes, they will tolerate a Taliban-involved government of some kind. But what they won’t tolerate is any terrorist attacks being launched from Afghanistani territory, wether it be al-qaeda, taliban, LeT, or whatever! They will return with a vengeance. And this time they will have Pakistan in their crosshairs.
@Irfan Hussain,
It is tactically much easier to face an enemy which is physically recognized and visible then to fight an invisible one!
Pakistan is possibly already suffering from ire as you so put it, of the US in the garb of a friend. The unauthorized missile attacks from their Drones and then the subsequent so-called inadvertent intrusions of their helicopters and killing of 2 FC soldiers by their firing on their check post, inside Pakistan territory in a illegal hot pursuit and Blackwater mercenaries presence on Pakistan’s soil are sufficient and glaring violent military incidents that can be quoted.
On the economic front they had attempted/blocked Pakistan, effort to come out of the acute and severe energy crisis hampering its economic progress and resulting in frustrations amongst the ordinary citizens daily life and living… firstly declaring the Pak-China civil nuclear reactor deal controversial and in the second instance objecting to the Iran natural gas supply line project which is a possibility and could have materialized at a much faster pace then the TAPI project that since past more over a decade has not been possible to initiate!
You are right on one account that Pakistan is not now the only supply route since Russia, in a sign of improving relations between NATO and Russia and the latter’s support to the West’s fight against terrorism, has agreed to allow the Western military alliance to transit armored vehicles to Afghanistan through its territory under an agreement to this effect signed at the weekend Russia-NATO Summit in Lisbon in November, last year. The new deal is a breakthrough for NATO in the wake of increasing attacks on its supply convoys transiting Pakistan. Earlier, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine were already allowing NATO to use their territory for the transit of non-lethal supplies such as food and fuel to Afghanistan through the so-called Northern route.
However, this is not going to be a very easy or less expensive or dangerous alternate route for them compared to the one through the Pakistan’s, 55-kilometer stretch between Peshawar and the Khyber Pass… which presently is a major supply route for the international troops, receiving three-fourths of their food, fuel and military hardware through Pakistan. Bulk of the supplies is shipped to Pakistan’s largest port, Karachi, from where it is taken by trucks to depots outside Peshawar.
Nevertheless, let me remind you that besides the supply route they are equally dependent and reliant on Pakistan’s support on many other accounts such as airbases, intelligence, securing possible attempts of cross border exchanges of militants from either sides and last but not least importantly they realize that Pakistan’s proximity with the Pukhtoons is the best bet compared to all of the other regional countries if a reconciliation effort is to succeed and all stake holders brought on to the table for stable and peaceful Afghanistan ,after their (US/NATO) forces withdraw from the country.
Im all For Pak amry not going to N.Waziristan
but all the Militant groups cannot engage in afghan jihad and attacking PAkistani Minorites from Pak Soil
“I wonder how can we play this double game ? Mr Najam wants Pakistan not listen to the west’s pleas to do some thing about north wazirastan . while admitting the presence of Haqanis, Bhadurs, Gulbadis, friendly Taliban friendly to Alqaida short of accepting to have links with Aqaida militants..” May ask what these people are doing in Nort Wazeerstan, can we say that they peaceful people fighting against non—- and of course not using the Pakistani soil for any kind of military activity across the border ? Even if we say that they fighting a just war against foreign enemy? who has invaded a neighboring Muslim country ? It is our religious moral and political duty to defend the integrity of Muslim brother country ? And that Pushtu n, Taliban are the legitimate rulers and gov’t of people of Afghanistan ?
If the answer is yes then where we are standing as a nation -country ? Is it not true that Pakistan is the American-western ally in war on terrorism since 1979 and then 2001 ?. I f the answer is again true then we are very strange nation! sir we are committed ally and an atomic country submitted its so called sovereignty on a single telephonic call !
My friends we have landed our selves in a big ‘ditch’ we can’t live in and out both….
An other important question what are our objectives in Afghanistan…. ? Do we still believe in the yester year’s dream of strategic depth….and then use the power against India Liberate Kashmir….and have great Muslim country – super power…. ?
We are American ally and wish her to be defeated in Afghanistan ? Assuming
This happens where will we find our selves, will it be our victory ? who’s victory it will be by the way, ? Like Russia’s loss in Afghanistan was America’s gain ? in this case who will gain India China, Iran Russia or Pakistan…? America will vanish from the earth and Islamic Khilafit Of Mullah Ommer, Osama bin laden will be established…? If not then what is all this about ? we want to stop Nato supply to Afghanistan why can’t we stop smuggling in Afghan trade… ? Pakistan has allowed and agreed to give route ….
We need 1 prepare, help start negotiation between Afghan groups. militants and USA- west… just as facilitator.. try to build new relationship with all Afghan groups…. get the Dwinder line recognized immediately… with present Afghan Gov’t .. forget to have proxy in Afghanistan have friendly neighbor help rebuild Afghanistan…forget your foolish dreams of conquering central Asia !
Build your own Economy, solve your socio- political problems have 10-20 years peace to develop you human industrial, techno logic base to be a player on Global level….with respect and honor Pakistan nation deserves….American lost in Vietnam today there is an american flag on every house-shop.. think today how you want to see your nation 50 years down the line ???pleas forgive if some thing you did’t like but these are my honest views observation!.